Open two gold price sites at the same moment and you may see two different prices, both presented as "the gold price", differing by fifty dollars an ounce or more. Neither site is necessarily wrong. They are quoting different instruments.
The two numbers
Spot (XAU/USD) is the price for gold delivered essentially now. It is the number the physical market runs on — refiners, bullion dealers, jewellery wholesalers — and it is what people mean by "the gold price".
Futures (on COMEX, symbol GC) is the price for gold delivered on a specific date in the future, usually the next active contract month. It is a contract, not metal in hand.
The two track each other closely because they are claims on the same commodity, but they are not the same price, and the gap between them is systematic rather than random.
Why futures usually sit higher
The difference is called contango, and it is mostly arithmetic rather than sentiment.
If you buy physical gold today, you pay now and you carry it: storage, insurance, and the interest you gave up by tying money into metal instead of leaving it earning a yield. Someone buying a futures contract avoids all of that until delivery. To keep the two routes equivalent — otherwise there would be a free profit in choosing one over the other — the futures price includes those carrying costs.
So the futures price is roughly the spot price plus the cost of holding gold until the contract's delivery date. When interest rates are higher, the carry costs more, and the gap widens.
Occasionally the relationship inverts and futures trade *below* spot — backwardation — which usually signals unusual immediate demand for physical metal. It is uncommon in gold and worth noticing when it happens.
Why the distinction matters to you
If you are pricing jewellery, valuing what you own, or checking a shop's quote, spot is the relevant number. It is the physical market's price. Using a futures quote as your reference builds a systematic error of around one percent into everything you calculate — always in the same direction, always making the shop look better than it is.
One percent is not catastrophic on a single gram. On a kilo of trade, it is real money. And because the error is consistent rather than random, it never averages out.
How to tell what a site is quoting
Most sites do not say. Two tells:
Check the number against a known spot source. If a site's "gold price" is consistently around 1% above others, it is quoting front-month futures.
Look for a contract month. Futures quotes often carry one — "December gold", "GC Feb" — even in small print. Spot never does, because there is no delivery month.
Why some sites use futures anyway
Not usually to deceive. Futures data is easier and cheaper to obtain: COMEX is a regulated exchange publishing continuous, well-structured data. Spot is an over-the-counter market, and clean spot feeds are harder to come by. Quoting futures is the path of least resistance.
That is an understandable engineering decision. Presenting the result as "the gold price" without saying so is the part that isn't.
What about the LBMA price?
You will also encounter the LBMA Gold Price, set twice each London business day through an electronic auction. It is a benchmark used for contract settlement and valuation rather than a live trading price — a daily fix rather than a continuous quote.
If you need a single official reference number for a given day, that is the one. If you want to know what gold costs right now, you want spot.
The short version
- Spot — gold now. The physical market's price. What you should use.
- Futures — gold on a future date, priced at spot plus carry. Around 1% higher in normal conditions.
- LBMA fix — a twice-daily benchmark for settlement, not a live price.
Our live price feed publishes spot, and every page states the source and the time it was last confirmed.