What does the model project for platinum next year?
A lognormal model fitted to 28.8 years of platinum prices puts the median one-year path at $3,275 per gram, with a one-standard-deviation range of $2,031 to $5,282.
The detail
The model has exactly two inputs, both measured from real closes: an annualised return of 5.69% and annualised volatility of 47.8%.
This is not a forecast and nobody can forecast a market price. It is a statement of what this metal's own past behaviour implies about the spread of possible outcomes. Real prices land outside modelled ranges regularly. Not investment advice.
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