Answered from live data · 22 Aug 2026, 16:31 UTC
What does the model project for gold next year?
Base case NT$198,451
A lognormal model fitted to 26 years of gold prices puts the median one-year path at NT$198,451 per tael, with a one-standard-deviation range of NT$147,626 to NT$266,774.
The detail
The model has exactly two inputs, both measured from real closes: an annualised return of 11.48% and annualised volatility of 29.6%.
This is not a forecast and nobody can forecast a market price. It is a statement of what this metal's own past behaviour implies about the spread of possible outcomes. Real prices land outside modelled ranges regularly. Not investment advice.
How this answer is produced
This page is generated from the same live measurements as the
Gold technical analysis
page — real daily closes and the current spot price, recomputed every 15 minutes. No part of it is
written in advance or stored as fixed text, which is why the numbers above are current rather than
historical. It is information, not investment advice.
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